May Report – Arcadia down 21.23%

Despite all the housing doom and gloom news, 33,024 homes were sold in California last month. According to DataQuick, it still “made for the slowest May since 1995 …”

Foreclosures throughout the state plowed through any hopes that Southern California had hit rock bottom.

The median price paid for a home last month was $339,000, down 4.2 percent from $354,000 for the month before, and down 30.0 percent from $484,000 for May a year ago when the median was at its peak. –dqnews

So how did Arcadia and its neighbors do? Were these cities able to buck the trend? The figures below are year-over-year change in median prices (i.e. May 2007 to May 2008).

ARCADIA

  • Homes sold: 43
  • Price change YOY: $746,500 to $588,000 (-21.23%)

SOUTH PASADENA

  • Homes sold: 9
  • Price change YOY: $860,000 to $700,000 (-18.6%)

PASADENA

  • Holes sold: 107
  • Price change YOY: $630,000 to $550,000 (-12.7%)

TEMPLE CITY

  • Homes sold: 28
  • Price change YOY: $598,000 to $551,000 (-7.86%)

MONROVIA

  • Homes sold: 18
  • Price change YOY: $575,000 to $490,000 (-14.78%)

SIERRA MADRE

  • Homes sold: 9
  • Price change YOY: $880,500 to $749,000 (-14.93%)

I predicted that this Summer would continue to break records in terms of declining values and it looks like May got the party started. Screaming headlines like this from the LA Times will no doubt add fuel to the already raging fire…

Median home price in California drops 30% in May

Not everyone is in distress though. Those who have been patient and held off on buying will have plenty of affordable homes to pick from when this crisis plays itself out. It looks like the media is also starting to realize this:

Renters sitting prettier amid house-market upheaval

Arcadia vs Temple City – $630k

Temple City is a small community-city bordering Arcadia and even crosses it in some areas. As seen on the map below, it is a little less than half the size of Arcadia,  For all you TC Rams, I’ve highlighted your city in green.

Today let’s look at what $630,000 will buy you in each city.

36 Alta St #b
Arcadia, CA 91006

Listing Price: $628,000 ($458/sf)

  • Beds: 3
  • Baths: 2.5
  • Sq. Ft.: 1,372

This is your typical Arcadia stucco’d box townhouse. You basically have no backyard, no driveway and probably share a wall with the unit next door. For $628k, one can argue that it’s a great price for a newly built property (2007). Unfortunately, the market says otherwise because this particular unit has been sitting on the market for 161 days.

These are popular because many buyers would prefer to not spend the time and money maintaining a yard. Unfortunately, this property comes attached with a monthly $147 HOA fee. So I guess you still end up paying for the maintenace.

5760 Camellia Ave
Temple City, CA 91780

Listing Price: $629,000 ($486/sf)

  • Beds: 3
  • Baths: 2.5
  • Sq. Ft.: 1,295

For this atypical Temple City home, you lose a room and restroom but gain 6,000sf in land. It is a 1931 custom built brick home and located near the corner of Temple City Blvd. and Las Tunas Dr. It is blocks from the Arcadia/Temple City border but that distance is the difference between a single family home and new townhouse.

Obviously, I’m not claiming these are comparable properties. But given $630,000, would you go for an older single family home or the newer attached product? Aside from the different school districts, Temple City and Arcadia basically share all the same amenities in the immediate area.

$3.2MM McMansion – Still no privacy

Holy cow! I can’t keep up with all the new $2,000,000+ listing that keep popping up every other day. This will be an interesting Summer as all the folks who can’t afford their McMansions anymore try to pawn it off to a lucky clueless buyer. Heck, some of them will even try to make a buck or two during the process….

2428 S 2nd Ave
Arcadia, CA 91006


Asking price? A whopping $3,188,000 (478/sf)!

You are in fact getting a lot of home for the money:

  • Beds: 6
  • Baths: 6.5
  • Sq. Ft.: 6,671

It is possible to squeeze 3 families into a home this size. Unfortunately, similar to other million dollar plus homes I’ve profiled, privacy is not something $3MM+ will buy you. This house is sitting on a tiny 1/3 acre:

In fact, if you carefully look, only a 5’+ wall separates you from the neighbor’s backyard (also another McMansion).

At $3,188,000, this seller want to make a cool $500,000 on his investment.

SALES HISTORY

Date Price Appreciation
May ’91 $340,000
Oct ’96 $80,000 -23.6%/yr
Nov ’04 $713,000 31.2%/yr
Nov ’06 $2,688,000 92.5%/yr

This is ridiculous. Even in extraordinarily pricey areas, $3.2MM can buy you more than a over-sized home. Take Newport Coast for instance. You’re money won’t go too far in this community, but dollar for dollar you at least get a view of the Pacific Ocean.

6 Dolomiti
Newport Coast, CA 92657

Comparing two locations

Today we have two homes. They are both similar in size, acreage and condition. In this case, it’s the location and school district which will determine what their true market is. Which one would you buy?

5308 Garypark Ave.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $450,000

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,435
$/Sq. Ft.: $314
Lot Size: 6,464 Sq. Ft.

Address may say Arcadia but this property is actually located within El Monte’s school district. In addition, the location is far from desirable. Check out the map:

Records show that the owner(s) bought this property in 2005 for $560,000 at… you guessed it, 100% financing. This home is definitely overpriced and not worth anymore than $300,000 to $350,000. Given that we have 2-3 years of decline to go, this short sale will most likely go back to the bank.

This is one property that will not benefit from sitting on a golf course.

928 Victoria Dr.
Arcadia, CA 91007

Price: $799,000

Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 1,201
$/Sq. Ft.: $665
Lot Size: 7,800 Sq. Ft.

Here we have a similarly sized home in a completely different setting. You get:

  • Arcadia School District
  • Desirable community of Peacock Village
  • The heart of Arcadia: Nearby is the Santa Anita Westfield Mall (soon to be The Promenade), racetrack, Pavillions, 99 Ranch and a host of other shops amenities.

In late 2006, this home was purchased for $650,000. After some remodeling and 2 years later, the owner’s now want to make $150,000 . Unfortunately, they bought during the peak of the housing bubble and I predict many price reductions to come. They will be lucky to break even on this property after paying the sales commission!

Call me crazy but asking for $665 per square foot on a 1,200sf home is definitely not priced to sell.

No Appreciation in the Hamptons

Another property has joined the $2,000,000+ club. This one is located in the beautiful Santa Anita Oaks area, or “Upper Rancho Estate”. Bordering close to San Marino and South Pasadena, homes in this community will always carry a hefty premium over other similar Arcadia properties.

Of course, there’s nothing normal about these homes either:

  • 3,000+ square foot homes
  • Up to 1 acre+ lots
  • Well kept neighborhoods
  • Privacy!

All in all, perhaps one would feel like they actually lived in the Hamptons… Not.

1050 Hampton Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Asking Price $2,388,000 ::: Sq-ft 3,649
Purchased Price $1,100,000 ::: Lot Size 0.76 acres
Purchased Date 1/29/2002 ::: Beds 4
Days on Redfin 2 ::: Baths 3.5
$/Sq-ft $654 ::: Year Built 1940
20% Downpayment $477,600 ::: Area Santa Anita Oaks
Income Required $597,000 ::: Type SFR
Est. Payment* $12,073/month ::: MLS# A08087163

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

Despite being in a desirable community located within a desirable city, this high-end home has a story to share with us. Take a look at its sales history:

Sep 02, 1988 $862,500
Jan 22, 1999 $870,000 (+$7,500)
Jan 29, 2002 $1,100,000 (+230,000)

Because the 1988 owner bought at the height of that era’s housing bubble, it took 11 years for the home to regain its value. This is not a theory or economic model. These are real sales figures that reflect what the opportunity costs is when you buy a home at the wrong time.

Fast forward 20 years later and we have the current owner who is trying to sell the same exact property for $2,388,000; a $1,288,000 premium over his 2002 purchase price. Of course, it looks like some remodeling has occurred:

  • Updated bar
  • Entertainment center
  • Glass wall
  • Salted pool & spa
  • “Gourmet kitchen” /w stainless appliances and granite counters
  • Hardwood floors, new carpetting, cabinets
  • New wiring and plumbing

There are two things I know about remodeling homes:

  1. It can get very expensive.
  2. It did not cost the owner even close to $1.2MM to update this home.

Do I blame this seller for trying to make a buck? Of course not. It is my experience that 99% of property owners believe their homes to be more desirable than the surrounding neighbors. Apparently, actual sales and listing data reveals that $2MM+ is asking too much.

Recent Sales

Current Listings

My theoretical offer on this home? I would give it a 5-6% annual appreciation over the last 6 years and maybe buy it for $1.5 – 1.6MM.

A $2.5MM Monstrosity. Part 1

I was going to save this newly listed property for Monday but it got me so excited that it’s only right I post about it today. Since Father’s Day is coming up and we’ll be busy with family, I will just leave this profile up over the weekend. I’d love to hear your thoughts regarding the $2,500,000 monstrosity.

————————————-

Five days ago I profiled a $2.5MM property renting for just $3,500. In exchange, you are required to showboat the home to prospective buyers. More details can be found here and many thanks to our reader T K Eng for the info.

Redfin caught the listing today providing additional details.

2002 N Bella Vista Ave
Arcadia, CA 91006

Asking Price $2,498,000 ::: Sq-ft 5,600
Purchased Price $625,000 ::: Lot Size 0.45 acres
Purchased Date 6/30/2003 ::: Beds 4
Days on Redfin 1 ::: Baths 4.5
$/Sq-ft $446 ::: Year Built 2008
20% Downpayment $499,600 ::: Area Longden/Holly
Income Required $624,500 ::: Type SFR
Est. Payment* $12,629/month ::: MLS# A08086465

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

With the addition of this home, there are now 15 homes in Arcadia listing for over $2,000,000. It is definitely an elite club to be in since the buyer would have to be flushed with cash and have extra cashflow to maintain these homes. Heck, property taxes alone will be over $20,000 per year.

I have a few comments regarding this listing:

1) Where’s the landscaping? For $2.5MM I would expect some exotic landscaping, privacy trees and perhaps even a pool and spa. Instead, you get grass and some shrubs.

2) No privacy. Make sure you install curtains because the McMansion next door can monitor your every movement.

3) 5,600sf building on a sub-half acre lot? Take a look at the aerial – the home and garage cover half the parcel.

I could go on and on about this property but we’ll save that for the upcoming week. From what you’ve seen so far, is this the luxury home you would envision a multi-millionaire buying?

Tour a Home – Get a Timeshare?

Up for sale is a million dollar home located blocks from Monrovia and the gang shooting area months earlier. But that aside, if safety isn’t your top concern, then this property seems to be promising:

316 Laurel Ave
Arcadia, CA 91006

Listing Price: $1,085,000

  • BEDS: 4
  • BATHS: 4.5
  • SQ. FT.: 3,201
  • $/SQ. FT.: $339
  • LOT SIZE: 6,350 Sq. Ft.

A typical overbuilt cookie cutter home. It was upgraded in 2001 and according to the seller,

There are so many Amenities that I can’t list them all. You must come and see the home for yourself. Furniture negotiable.

Sure, you get a lot of living space. But for $1,000,000+ I’d expect some privacy too. Check out the backyard; you can almost shakes hands with your neighbor from window to window!

Sales History

11/1990 $670,000
05/2001 $555,000
10/2006 $1,080,000

Listing History
Jan 11, 2008 $1,150,000
Apr 19, 2008 $1,085,000 (-$65,000, -5.6%)

So wait, all the “upgrades” were actually done by the previous owner and now this guy wants nearly double the 2001 sales price? It’s going to take more than a measly 5.6% price reduction to get rid of this home and the owner knows it. The listing description says it all:

Attention all Guests! Seller is giving away 3 days/2 nights vacations, with 26 different destinations to choose from. This is not a raffle. No purchase necessary. Just come and take a look at the property.

So how can they afford to give away free vacations to all visitors? Sounds too good to be true, right? You’ve probably guessed it from the title but I believe the sellers are just “giving away” vacations normally offered by Timeshares. All the recipient has to do is sit through a 2-3 hour sales pitch and be pressured and ridiculed into buying a share of a vacation home.

In the end, you’re given a voucher for a “free vacation” which includes blackout dates and restrictions that usually isn’t worth your time figuring out.

This seller actually put a $200,000+ downpayment on his home. How much do you think he will get back after months of depreciation, 6% commissions and the inevitable price reductions?

Perhaps I will stop by this weekend and insist on getting my 2-night vacation with no strings attached.

Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market